Profiting in a sideways market

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest The latest crop condition estimates are the lowest since 2013 (corn down 2% and beans down 4%). Also, time is running out for the western half of Iowa to get enough rain to produce average corn yields. Forecasts shift every six hours, which contributes to farmer and market uncertainties. This week it rained in the eastern corn belt, but the west continues to struggle with heat and dryness.These uncertainties are convincing more and more farmers that crops are all but loss, causing people to think “corn HAS to rally to $4.25-$4.50.”It seems like a lot of people are on the same side in their thinking. This makes me nervous. So, I caution farmers to take a step back and also consider the following:Rumors and threats of drought happen every yearRealistically, the market already knows that 25% of the Corn Belt is suffering from dry weather. It’s estimating a 165 national yield with $3.90 Dec corn.Informa adjusted their yield estimates from 170 to 166 this week. Funds have switched from a sizable short position to a small long position. If the funds switch back for any reason the market can drop rather quickly.As Dec futures trade above $4, South American competition becomes a concern. Export opportunities could be diminished and imports a possibility.Remember, earlier this year there were rumors that the Argentina bean crop yield would be much lower due to weather. In the end, it was a normal yield. I’m not suggesting we have a normal corn yield, but maybe yields won’t be as bad as some are expecting.Fear is usually highest right before facts become available. I’m not saying that the hot and dry weather isn’t affecting corn yields. I would just caution farmers that in the end, if yields are affected minimally at harvest, lower prices are still a reasonable possibility. So you need to ask yourself, are you prepared if prices fall below $3.80 again? No one knows what’s going to happen, including me. The market could easily go either way at this point. Therefore, I suggest that farmers consider both scenarios (prices going up or down) when preparing their marketing plan. Profiting in a sideways marketIt’s difficult for farmers to sit back in late July when corn prices are sideways at unprofitable levels, old crop is still in storage unpriced, and next year’s harvest is only two short months away. Many are just waiting and hoping for prices to rally, because they just have to go up. But, prices don’t necessarily have to go up, and hoping they do isn’t an effective marketing strategy. So what can farmers do in the meantime?The three trades below are examples of how farmers can pick up a little premium during a sideways market that they can later add to a trade that boosts them to profitable price points for their farm operation. None of these trades are grand slams. They’re just steady bunts and singles that fill up the bases, helping me to move forward and keep increasing the score. Sometimes by shifting the way one thinks about their marketing strategy and consider trades like these, farmers can make the best of an unpleasant situation. Prices under $4 are frustrating for everyone. We all want prices to rally. But, while everyone else is waiting around hoping, I’m going to look for potential low risk trades where I can make small profits in the meantime.I’ve previously mentioned that I thought a sideways market in the short-term was likely throughout the summer. Therefore, I placed several trades to take advantage if this happened. This past Friday was the expiration of August Options. Following is a recap of trades I had working and the results of those trades. Trade 1On 5/2/17 I sold an Aug $3.70 straddle for 35 cents (I sold the $3.70 put and the $3.70 call and collected a total of 35 cents).Trade Expiration is 7/21/17 after the weather markets for the corn crop is known5% of 2017 production (This trade takes place after 7/4, so it’s a new crop trade for me)Assuming normal weather the market should trend lowerPotential benefit: If Sep futures close at $3.70 on 7/21, I keep the 35 cent premiumPotential concern: Reduced or no premium if the market moves significantly in either directionFor every penny lower than $3.70 I get less premium until $3.35. At $3.35 or lower a new crop corn sale is removed, but any profits gained on that trade can be added to a future sale. Every penny higher than $3.70 I get less premium until $4.05. At $4.05 or higher I have to make another corn sale at $4.05 against Sep futures. A Sep trade can then be “rolled” from the Sep to the Dec and I will like pick up 10 cents of premium and this trade would be about $4.15 against the Dec. What happened?The market was above $3.70. I let the option get exercised, since I have a little ’16 crop left to sell. This means I applied short Sep corn futures at $3.70 in my account but still collected the 35-cent premium. In other words, I sold old crop for $4.05 against Sep.Could you have just bought the straddle back for a profit and sold at a later time?Yes, but that would have meant extending my risk over a weekend that held a lot of weather uncertainty for the market. I didn’t want to take on the added risk. Ultimately, I was able to sell 10% of my production at a known profitable level. Considering prices the last few weeks (and even months), this trade may end up being the best price for corn this season (it’s at least the highest of the past 12 months). Plus, I was able to take some risk off the table.Even if prices rally, I still have more ’17 crop to sell. Ideally I want this trade to be the wrong decision and prices rally. Trade 2On 6/20/17 Sep corn was trading near $3.80 I expected continued sideways trading. The expected market direction into ate July is probably sideways with a potential small dip in prices.I sold an Aug $3.75 straddle for 25 cents.Expired 7/21/17 before yield is known and while there is still a chance for a weather rally.Potential benefit: If Sep futures close at $3.75 on 7/21, I keep the 25 cent premiumPotential concern: Reduced or no premium if the market moves significantlyFor every penny lower than $3.75 I get less premium until $3.50. At $3.50 or lower an original corn sale is removed. Every penny above $3.75 I get less premium until $4. At $4 or higher I have to make another sale at $4 against the Sep futures.At this point I still have some old crop I need to sell and $4.00 seems like a great goal. What happened?When corn was trading at $3.82, I bought back the call portion of the trade for 7 cents and I let the put expired worthless. I received 25 cents when I sold the straddle originally, so I was left with 18 cents profit and my position is unchanged. The trade was designed to pick up a little premium if the market stayed sideways, which it did. I was really pleased with the outcome of this trade. Trade 3Typically corn prices decrease from the third week of June through July, and I wanted to capture that potential. So on 6/20/17 when Sep futures were around $3.80, I sold a $3.90 Aug call for 9.5 cents on 5% of my ‘16 corn production.What does this mean?If Sep corn is above $3.90 on 7/21 I have to sell corn for $3.90 and keep 9.5 cents ($3.995 total).If Sep corn is below $3.90 on 7/21 I keep the 9.5 cents to use on another trade in the future. What happened?Corn was $3.80, so I collected the 9.5-cent premium on the worthless expired option.These trades all added to my bottom line. They weren’t designed with the HOPE of a market rally. They were designed to make additional profit if the market continued on its sideways path in the short term. As a farmer it’s important to consider all reasonable market outcomes, not just “the market has to go up,” in marketing plans and strategy. Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, NE. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. He can be contacted at [email protected]last_img read more

Online Privacy: The Opt-Out Revolution Is Almost Here

first_imgWhat if two-thirds of the people on the Web were invisible, secretly visiting websites and searching for products and services while leaving Internet giants like Google and Facebook in the dark about what they were doing?With no information on those people’s activities, there could be no targeted advertising for them and much of the multi-billion-dollar ad Web market would collapse, forcing big changes in the business models of today’s biggest and most powerful Internet companies.While such a scenario won’t come to pass overnight, a new study by market researcher Ovum indicates that millions of people could start “vanishing” from the Web within a few years, causing major disruptions to the Internet economy. The reason so many people may go data dark? Privacy concerns.The Future Is HereSigns exist today that the procession of media stories showing Internet companies compromising user privacy in favor of advertisers are having an impact on more and more people’s psyche. Recent examples of the kinds of stories that over time erode trust include Facebook acknowledging to USA Today that it keeps a running log of the Web pages each of its 1 billion monthly active users visited over the previous 90 days.Other examples include a half-dozen federal class-action suits filed against Google and Viacom, accusing the companies of collecting data on children visiting sites such as Nick.com and NickJr.com and then sharing the information. And Canadian and Dutch authorities reporting that WhatsApp, an instant-messaging smartphone application ranked as one of the world’s top five best-selling apps, violates international privacy laws by forcing users to provide access to their address books. The regularity of such bad behavior over the last several years has taken its toll on the reputation of the tech industry. In a survey of Internet users in 11 countries, including the United States, Ovum found that only 14% believed Internet businesses were honest about their use of people’s personal data. Worse for the future of online advertising, 68% would choose to block all tracking, if that option was easily available.While Web browsers and some Internet companies, including Facebook and Google, provide tools for limiting the sharing of data, they are not easy enough for most people to use- and they are not marketed in a way to maximize use, Ovum analyst Mark Little says. As a result, many people are open to alternatives, and entrepreneurs are moving in.Examples include Personal Inc., Respect Network, Allow and Abine. This segment of the tech industry is growing with a message that goes beyond just blocking companies from online tracking. They also market personal data vaults and reputation management that searches and deletes data on the Web.These tools are not widely used today, but in time, as privacy concerns continue to grow and these products get easier to use, consumers will likely start taking control of their personal data. “It’s not just about blocking because you are concerned about your data and how much people know about you,” Little said. “People are also blocking because they are feeling like companies are getting rich on them. They’re feeling exploited.”People’s Changing AttitudesAn indication of changing attitudes toward guarding personal information can be seen in the ballooning popularity of Snapchat, which lets users send pictures and videos that self-destruct in 10 seconds. As of last weekend, the app was the third most popular photo and video app in the U.S., according to analytics company App Annie. Snapchat claims that 50 million “snaps” are sent every day.Snapchat is popular mostly with teenagers and young adults, who often use the service to send naughty pictures. However, there is also a growing unease among young people about having a permanent social record on Facebook or Google+, Bloomberg Businessweek reported this week. It makes sense that this age would be most sensitive to having personal information on the Web, since they are under constant surveillance by people who can have major impact on their lives, such as teachers, college admissions officers and parents.The desire for impermanence and control of data is also growing among older Web users. A 2010 survey by researchers at the University of California at Berkeley found that roughly nine in 10 people aged 18-to-24 years and 45-to-54 supported a proposed law that would require websites and advertising companies to delete all stored data about a person on request.Zuckerberg Was WrongIn 2010, Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder and chief executive of Facebook, said he believed people’s attitudes toward sharing personal data had become much more open. “People have really gotten comfortable not only sharing more information and different kinds, but more openly and with more people,” he said in an onstage interview with TechCrunch founder Michael Arrington. “That social norm is just something that has evolved over time.”Zuckerberg was wrong.As people become more aware of how Internet companies are using their personal data and how it affects their lives, they will start sharing less and demand more control. When that happens, a lot of Internet companies will have to dramatically change their relationship with users or make do with a lot less data to sell to advertisers.Image courtesy of ShutterStock. Why Tech Companies Need Simpler Terms of Servic… Related Posts Tags:#abine#allow#Facebook#Google#internet companies#online advertising#personal inc.#privacy#privacy abuse#respect network antone gonsalvescenter_img A Web Developer’s New Best Friend is the AI Wai… Top Reasons to Go With Managed WordPress Hosting 8 Best WordPress Hosting Solutions on the Marketlast_img read more

Sandals Resorts win top prizes at World Travel Awards Gala in Exuma

first_imgFacebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp Beaches reconstruction delayed, delivery mix up at airport Survey shows TCI beaches keep visitors coming Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsAppProvidenciales, 20 Oct 2015 – Sandals Resorts International cleaned up at this weekend’s World Travel Awards which was for the first time held in Great Exuma, in The Bahamas. Although company CEO, Adam Stewart was unable to make the gala at the Sandals Emerald Bay, he should have been pleased to hear that when it came to Caribbean’s Leading prizes, Sandals and Beaches and Island Routes again got the gold. Beaches Family All Inclusive was named best family all inclusive in the region and the TCI Beaches also earned an individual prize. Island Routes is leading tour company, Sandals Emerald Bay is leading conference hotel and Sandals was named Caribbean’s Leading Hotel brand. World Travel Awards is hailed as the Oscar’s of the Travel industry and its creator, Graham Cooke said: “What a night for Sandals! Over the past two decades the brand has grown into an institution here in the Caribbean and that success has been recognised by our voters…” The World Travel Awards was hosted by TV personality Andrew Kennedy and former Miss Bahamas and broadcaster, Anastagia Pierre with entertainment from the Crusaders Junkanoo Group, the Royal Bahamas Police Force Pop Band and Alia Cole. Recommended for you Related Items:adam stewart, beaches, Sandals Resort International, world travel awards Hurricane Irma causes major damage and destruction in TCIlast_img read more

Matthaus Dortmund remain favourites for the Bundesliga title

first_imgGerman legend Lothar Matthaus believes Borussia Dortmund remain in pole position for this season’s Bundesliga titleLucien Favre’s side holds a six-point lead over reigning champions Bayern Munich at the top of the standings as they chase a first league crown in seven years.And Matthaus is backing BVB to finish the job and end his old club’s dominance of the Bundesliga.“This week, the most exciting second half of the Bundesliga in seven years will start,” Matthaus wrote on his Sky column.Jadon SanchoMerson believes Arsenal should sign Sancho Manuel R. Medina – September 14, 2019 Borussia Dortmund winger Jadon Sancho might be the perfect player to play for the Gunners, according to former England international Paul Merson.“The BVB will be the hunted ones while Bayern are the hunters. This is a new role for both teams. The team who can best handle this situation will win the championship.“I still believe Dortmund will decide the title race in their own favour. But if anyone can catch up with them, then, of course, it’s Bayern.”The Bundesliga will resume this week after the winter break with Bayern to travel to Hoffenheim on Friday and Dortmund to take on RB Leipzig the next day.last_img read more

The Royal Wedding San Diego fans celebrate at local tea shop

first_img 00:00 00:00 spaceplay / pause qunload | stop ffullscreenshift + ←→slower / faster ↑↓volume mmute ←→seek  . seek to previous 12… 6 seek to 10%, 20% … 60% XColor SettingsAaAaAaAaTextBackgroundOpacity SettingsTextOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundSemi-TransparentOpaqueTransparentFont SettingsSize||TypeSerif MonospaceSerifSans Serif MonospaceSans SerifCasualCursiveSmallCapsResetSave SettingsSaturday morning, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle said “I do.” Elizabeth Alvarez joined excited fans at Shakespeare’s Corner Shoppe to have a cup of tea and watch the wedding broadcast. The Royal Wedding: San Diego fans celebrate at local tea shop Elizabeth Alvarez, May 19, 2018 Categories: Good Morning San Diego, Local San Diego News FacebookTwittercenter_img Updated: 8:50 AM Elizabeth Alvarez Posted: May 19, 2018last_img read more

In a September of Skinnies Redbook Highlights Body Diversity

first_img While newsstand sales and ad revenue might tell us about the business of magazines, the National Eating Disorders Association (NEDA) has its own standard of success: how does it make the reader feel? Folio: caught up with editor-in-chief Meredith Rollins to find out what body-positivity means for a contemporary women’s magazine, and how Redbook balances curation with accessible content. Folio: Women’s magazines are often criticized for showing a narrow or shallow version of womanhood. What responsibility do you feel Redbook has to address or challenge these criticisms? Rollins: Well, our readers are overwhelmingly moms, so they’re all over mobile. If you want to see women on their phones, go stand at the sidelines of a kid’s soccer game: Everyone is doing everything at once — shopping, social media, planning their schedules, texting, reading a magazine. So Redbook is huge on mobile. And our readers are all over Facebook and Instagram and Pinterest too. Meredith Rollins: First, it was a huge thrill to get the NEDA award; this is an organization that has been doing incredible work around eating disorders and body image. But to answer the question, the inspiration behind the issue is to show that style doesn’t come in just one model-thin package. September marks our third year of the Real Women Style Awards, and our second time putting our winners on the cover. This year, as last year, they are a totally stunning group of six women, and they encompass a range of body types. In September, when we all get excited about fall fashion, it’s super-important to me to underline the fact that being chic doesn’t depend on fitting into a sample size. All types of bodies are beautiful.
 Folio: NEDA honored Redbook’s September 2016 issue for celebrating body diversity. What was the inspiration behind the issue? Folio: Who are your readers? What are they like? Folio: How is body positivity expressed in Redbook’s normal editorial cycle? Rollins: We think about it a lot. We emphasize health and strength over getting thin; we give nutrition advice but never tell anyone to go on a diet; we talk constantly about confidence and finding pride in who you are. Body positivity isn’t just about finding your perfect-fitting pair of jeans (though that helps!). It’s about remembering to value yourself every day. With that question in mind, NEDA has awarded Redbook’s September issue the NEDA Inspires Seal of Approval, which honors content that challenges the “thin ideal” and promotes diverse representations. Rollins: We photograph non-models and non-celebrities for our fashion and beauty pages constantly. We shoot models too — we feature an amazing Broadway dancer in the fashion story in our upcoming October issue — but I do think that most women are more apt to believe that an outfit or beauty trick will work on them if they see it on a person who isn’t professionally beautiful. They can relate to it more. And relatability is key.
 Given a ratebase of 2,200,000, and last September’s print and digital single copy sales of 88,629 — according to its AAM reports — such editorial decisions can have a lot of reach.  Folio: Tell me about Redbook’s digital presence. What formats do most of your readers use?  Folio: What is your stance on “aspirational” versus “real-life” models and coverage? Folio: What can we expect from Redbook moving forward? Rollins: What we’re doing is clearly resonating with readers and the marketplace, so we’ll continue to deliver smart, beautiful content to women whose lives are time-crunched and crazy-busy. They deserve the reminder that life doesn’t need to be perfect. It needs to be simpler, and prettier, and happier — that’s what’s most important. As September persists, and the shelf weight of the famed fall fashion issues eases, it’s time to ask not how much magazine we were given, but how well it was given to us.  Rollins: Redbook readers love style and want to live a gorgeous, well-curated life, but they’re also being pulled in a million different directions. Since their free time is in such short supply, we give them the tools to do everything faster and more easily: find a cute outfit, get a great beauty routine, design a lovely home, put something delicious on the table. Plus, we focus on helping them build confidence, advocate for themselves, and have the courage to get the job and salary they deserve. We’re a one-stop shop for women who simply don’t have the energy to read a bunch of different magazines, and we hear all the time that readers love us for that. Plus, we know that our readers want content that’s funny and voicey and celebrates how imperfect life is, so we laugh at ourselves a lot too.
 Rollins: Showing diversity — in all its forms — is incredibly important, and I think our commitment to it at Redbook is part of why we’ve attracted so many new readers. There’s such gorgeous diversity in America, and my point of view is that we should constantly celebrate it and reflect it back to our readers. I don’t want anyone to open the magazine or visit the website or interact with us on social and not feel like they are part of the conversation.last_img read more

The Google Tool That Helps You Make Better HR Decisions

first_img Free Webinar | Sept. 9: The Entrepreneur’s Playbook for Going Global 4 min read Growing a business sometimes requires thinking outside the box. Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own. January 26, 2016 Data has the power to strengthen everything businesses do, from the new products they launch to the marketing campaigns they use to promote those products. Gathering information and putting that information to use has become big business, creating jobs and cloud solutions. When a business is more informed before making decisions, that business can get more return from every dollar it spends.In recent years, businesses have realized the value of people analytics in making human resources decisions. Learning as much as possible about current staff performance improves the choices made about hiring, training and promotion. With technology powering much of what businesses do, gaining access to this data is easier than ever. However, small businesses can save money and time by learning from the lessons large businesses are sharing.People analytics in big business.Google is one of the highest-profile users of people analytics for human resources. The company bases many of its decisions on data analytics, believing that the choices it makes about employees are more important than any other decisions, impacting the organization at all levels. By labeling its human resources department “people operations,” the company is saying that HR is as integral as any other area of operations. With the right people in place, businesses can provide better customer service and increase productivity while also minimizing cost.Engineering firm Stantec uses people analytics to predict outcomes, including employee turnover trends. By looking at areas of the company that seem to have an increased rate of employee resignations and terminations, Stantec can determine where changes might need to be made. Predictive analytics help the company to maintain adequate staffing across the entire organizations. This sort of analytics has been used in retail for years, as companies look at last year’s numbers to determine how many employees are needed on the floor this year.Related: 10 Hilarious Signs You Should Not Take That Job (Infographic)Small business applications.Although small businesses can get the same benefits as larger businesses from people analytics, they often lack the resources necessary to gather information on employee actions. While cloud-based solutions provide an answer to that, often businesses simply need access to general information about hiring the right employees and getting the most out of them.Google’s re:Work is likely to become a go-to resource for businesses in this situation. With re:Work, Google provides the results of the research it has done in the form of articles, case studies and tips from experts in various industries. Businesses can search re:Work for keywords or browse topics like hiring, managing or training. The platform is designed to demonstrate how organizations can help each other better cultivate and nurture top talent.Related: Why You Need to Embrace the Big Data Trend in HRAnalytics makes HR more effectiveAs businesses launch their own people analytics programs, Google is offering support in that area. The company offers guides specific to topics like running employee surveys and identifying and defining metrics. Following the guide step by step, businesses can learn how to set up their own people analytics and make the most out of them. The company also has a book on its insights, as well as a people analytics-based hashtag called #makeworkbetter.By observing the way Google has changed its HR activities as a result of its analytics efforts, businesses can determine which behaviors work and which might be less effective. One major change Google made was in its interview process. After discovering that more than four interviewers didn’t increase the quality of hires, the company decreased the number of interviews required. The company also implemented an on-boarding process that it found increased productivity by 15 percent.Businesses are using analytics to power every important decision they make. A business’s employees are its most important assets, so why not use analytics to make decisions about hiring and employee retention? By following the example of large companies like Google, businesses of all sizes can gather the information they need to improve their hiring, training and employee promotion efforts.Related: Hire Better Talent With a Big-Data Scientist Register Now »last_img read more